The Important States

Current projections show that Obama will win 16 states and DC for 210 electoral votes and McCain will win 23 states for 189 electoral votes.

Here are the contested states (and their 139 electoral votes) that will decide the presidential election:
Florida (of course!) - 27 (went Rep in 2004)
Pennsylvania - 21 (2004: Dem)
Ohio - 20 (2004: Rep)
Michigan - 17 (2004: Dem)
Virginia - 13 (2004: Rep)
Missouri - 11 (2004: Rep)
Colorado - 9 (2004: Rep)
Iowa - 7 (2004: Rep)
Nevada - 5 (2004: Rep)
New Mexico - 5 (2004: Rep)
New Hampshire - 4 (2004: Dem)

If 2008 is a repeat of 2004 in these states, McCain will win 286-252.

Obama will probably not have a hard time holding on to PA & MI, so here is my not-so-bold prediction: both candidates will be spending significant time in the next four months - McCain especially - in FL, OH, VA & MO. Those are really the only states that matter.